Search results for "PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION"
showing 10 items of 48 documents
Superiority of Optimized Portfolios to Naive Diversification: Fact or Fiction?
2017
Abstract DeMiguel, Garlappi, and Uppal (2009) conducted a highly influential study where they demonstrated that none of the optimized portfolios consistently outperformed the naive diversification. This result triggered a heated debate within the academic community on whether portfolio optimization adds value. Nowadays several studies claim to defend the value of portfolio optimization. The commonality in all these studies is that various portfolio optimization methods are implemented using the datasets generously provided by Kenneth French and the performance is measured by means of the Sharpe ratio. This paper aims to provide a cautionary note regarding the use of Kenneth French datasets …
Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Risk Management
2016
Numerous econometric studies report that financial asset volatilities and correlations are time-varying and predictable. Over the past decade, this knowledge has stimulated increasing interest in various dynamic portfolio risk control techniques. The two basic types of risk control techniques are: risk control across assets and risk control over time. At present, the two types of risk control techniques are not implemented simultaneously. There has been surprisingly little theoretical study of optimal dynamic portfolio risk management. In this paper, the author fills this gap in the literature by formulating and solving the multi-period portfolio choice problem. In terms of dynamic portfoli…
Forecasting portfolio returns using weighted fuzzy time series methods
2016
We propose using weighted fuzzy time series (FTS) methods to forecast the future performance of returns on portfolios. We model the uncertain parameters of the fuzzy portfolio selection models using a possibilistic interval-valued mean approach, and approximate the uncertain future return on a given portfolio by means of a trapezoidal fuzzy number. Introducing some modifications into the classical models of fuzzy time series, based on weighted operators, enables us to generate trapezoidal numbers as forecasts of the future performance of the portfolio returns. This fuzzy forecast makes it possible to approximate both the expected return and the risk of the investment through the value and a…
Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Models for Dealing with Investor’s Preferences
2017
This chapter provides an overview of the authors’ previous work about dealing with investor’s preferences in the portfolio selection problem. We propose a fuzzy model for dealing with the vagueness of investor preferences on the expected return and the assumed risk, and then we consider several modifications to include additional constraints and goals.
A fuzzy ranking strategy for portfolio selection applied to the Spanish stock market
2007
In this paper we present a fuzzy ranking procedure for the portfolio selection problem. The uncertainty on the returns of each portfolio is approximated by means of a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The expected return and risk of the portfolio are then characteristics of that fuzzy number. A rank index that accounts for both expected return and risk is defined, allowing the decision-maker to compare different portfolios. The paper ends with an application of that fuzzy ranking strategy to the Spanish stock market.
Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Models: A Numerical Study
2012
In this chapter we analyze the numerical performance of some possibilistic models for selecting portfolios in the framework of risk-return trade-off. Portfolio optimization deals with the problem of how to allocate wealth among several assets, taking into account the uncertainty involved in the behavior of the financial markets. Different approaches for quantifying the uncertainty of the future return on the investment are considered: either assuming that the return on every individual asset is modeled as a fuzzy number or directly measuring the uncertainty associated with the return on a given portfolio. Conflicting goals representing the uncertain return on and risk of a fuzzy portfolio a…
Scenario optimization asset and liability modelling for individual investors
2006
We develop a scenario optimization model for asset and liability management of individual investors. The individual has a given level of initial wealth and a target goal to be reached within some time horizon. The individual must determine an asset allocation strategy so that the portfolio growth rate will be sufficient to reach the target. A scenario optimization model is formulated which maximizes the upside potential of the portfolio, with limits on the downside risk. Both upside and downside are measured vis- `a-vis the goal. The stochastic behavior of asset returns is captured through bootstrap simulation, and the simulation is embedded in the model to determine the optimal portfolio. …
A new approach to portfolio selection based on forecasting
2023
In this paper we analyze the portfolio selection problem from a novel perspective based on the analysis and prediction of the time series corresponding to the portfolio’s value. Namely, we define the value of a particular portfolio at the time of its acquisition. Using the time series of historical prices of the different financial assets, we calculate backward the value that said portfolio would have had in past time periods. A damped trend model is then used to analyze this time series and to predict the future values of the portfolio, providing estimates of the mean and variance for different forecasting horizons. These measures are used to formulate the portfolio selection problem, whic…
A Simulation Analysis of the Microstructure of an Order Driven Financial Market with Multiple Securities and Portfolio Choices
2005
In this paper we propose an artificial market where multiple risky assets are exchanged. Agents are constrained by the availability of resources and trade to adjust their portfolio according to an exogenously given target portfolio. We model the trading mechanism as a continuous auction order-driven market. Agents are heterogeneous in terms of desired target portfolio allocations, but they are homogeneous in terms of trading strategies. We investigate the role played by the trading mechanism in affecting the dynamics of prices, trading volume and volatility. We show that the institutional setting of a double auction market is sufficient to generate a non-normal distribution of price changes…
Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing
2021
We model sovereign debt sustainability with optimal financing decisions under macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal uncertainty, with endogenous risk and term premia. Using a coherent risk measure we trade-off debt stock and flow risks subject to sustainability constraints. We optimize static and dynamic financing strategies and demonstrate economically significant savings from optimal financing compared with simple rules and consols, and find that optimizing the trade-offs can be critical for sustainability. The model quantifies minimum refinancing risk and maximum rate of debt reduction that a sovereign can achieve given its economic fundamentals, and an extension identifies optimal timing…